Quick update to see how the El ninos is tracking.
Looks to me like it is isnt. There is still subsurface warming along the equator here,
However 2 things are apparent. First off the Easterlies are still upwelling cold water from the South American coast, note the purple that has appeared near South America, and secondly its spreading East into the basin cooling the heat that is in the Nino 3.4 region. there are still no sign of any westerly winds, so its going to be as per my forecast from April, a neutral year. If its going to warm up its will need to get a hurry on and it isnt happening on any indicator.