Apparently, we are doomed! The dreaded El nino is back. At least the climate models think so. Without fear of repeating myself, lets take a look.
This was 17th June 2012, the warmth on the SA coast was definitely coming on.
However, lets see todays chart.
A few things. Winds are Easterly, dragging up cold water near Ecuador, and spreading it towards Australia. This is not what happens in an El nino. Secondly, the heat has rapidly dissapated when you compare with a couple of months.
But most noticably if you look right in the middle of the pacific at 140 W there is lucky to be half a degree above normal, and today there is even a couple of little blue spots in the middle there.
Another indicator is the wind, still strong Easterlies and strengthening, and on the part below a small warm patch is all thats left.
Southern Oscillation Index is still barely negative, another indicator showing that the El nino just cant get going because of the cold PDO.
And with no westerlies expected in the next month, it should set the scene for cooling and a cool neutral summer.