I have got a few messages over the past week with people asking about my forecast.
Of course its different to the official forecast in a fairly decent fashion.
So i want to remind everyone my thoughts on why i believe we will see another massive summer.
First off, the BOM have already laid their cards down on the table and screamed El nino and dry conditions, which in fairness aligns with most climate models. In my opinion, that is mistake number 1. Models are full of assumptions, and they spit our what is inputed into them.
Of course, most organisations with an agenda, like the BOM, or the Met Office, like to always forecast hot weather, mention hot weather, highlight dry spells, so that when the temperatures come out we arent shocked to see them so high.
Automatically we think back and say to ourselves, well an El nino was forecast with drier conditions. But does the layperson bother to find out what actually occurred? The answer is usually no. So we just accept that 2010 was the warmest year on record when it was nothing of the sort.
Anyway, we are getting sidetracked. The main problem at the moment is the interior of the country is dry, and the waters off the coast of Wa toward Indonesia are 2 degrees colder than normal.
Now its my belief this is seasonal, and in part due to the persistent SE winds sweeping through the middle of the country and out toward Indonesia. This air is also dry so little moisture around. And i know people think it means another dry summer but i dont think it will be. The water below the surface is warm, and once the cold Se winds relax somewhat in the coming weeks, this will improve. And once it does, vast amounts of moisture will be pumped down through the interior to the Southern states, bringing storms and rain and generally an active summer.
Last year the same thing happened. lets take a look.
Last year at the end of Sept, it was still almost the same, except the Pacific was well on its way to another secondary La nina, or double dip La nina. The same pattern is occurring, although we wont see a la nina its now cooling rapidly as the ocean begins to couple with the atmosphere. The Easterly Trade winds have really picked up and from here on its now only going one way, and its not El nino.
This is about the time the switch occurs, the NW winds from the Indian in association with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) start the warming process. Also, the build up to the monsoon season starts cranking as well shooting moisture Southwards over the mainland.
So thats September last year, so lets fast forward 6 to 8 weeks and check out what occurred.
It warmed, and this year is following exactly the same pattern. We saw enormous summer rains for most of the country once everything settled and got to work.
Given all the indicators are now cooling, and the oceans are starting to follow, rather than Vice versa as you would normally expect, there is no reason why the same pattern wont emerge and we get very high rainfall again.
My ace in the pack is the strength of the Long Wave trough and associated cold air, if we start seeing this sort of intensity of LWT during the late Spring and summer we are all swimming. I expect the monsoon trough to move South a long way again this summer and bring flooding rains throughout.
At the end of the day i see no reason to change my position on this, if anything im astounded the pattern wants to start activating the inland troughs already. Whilst the winds are Easterly and pumping into the mainland, the Pacific will keep cooling, moisture will build and rains will come with abundance yet again.
If i am wrong, then i am and you can message me daily as a reminder.
But what if i am right? What are the implications for us all?