Shifting of the patterns.

Further to my Spring forecast, which as you all know is for above average rainfall.

Just had a look at the CAPE values, which is the Convective Available Potential Energy, a measure of how unstable the amtosphere is and how much energy it could potentially use.

The actual value is fairly irrelevant because its still very much in the dry season up North.

But what isnt irrelevant is we are already seeing a dipping of the trough very close to the Top end so early in September, indicating we could see an early build up season. Also note that off the NW WA coast its starting to think about turning around from fine and dry to warm and humid with showers.

This is the area that is key, remember climate models are saying we are into an El Nino with a clear dry signal for Australia until Autumn. Its my forecast this area comes alive in the next 6 weeks and starts to deliver high rainfall across the country.

And again GFS, CMC and Access all show the upper trough developing in the NW corner of the country, indicating that the shift is on with moisture increasing.

Here is the chart, Dewpoint temps of 15 degrees making their way Southwards through WA.

So the signs are there that the El Nino is dead, that we will see a normal year of high rainfall across most of the country.

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