Good to see the BOM agreed with my July Spring forecast, and declared the El Nino a non starter.
From the BOM:
The POAMA model, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates a new forecast on day 1 of each month for the following eight months. The most recent model run (September) predicts NINO3.4 has peaked and is likely to fall below the El Niño threshold during spring and remain neutral for the remainder of the forecast period.
The El Nino peaked and got no where the technical classification! It was a warm neutral year. Some alarmists will have you believe that this means we will have a Super El Nino next year.
Unfortunately for them, we are now in a cold PDO and there can be no strong Nino.
Current forecast from CFS has the warmth in 3.4 backing off over summer. Personally i think it will drop like a stone rather than the slow drop off, but we wait and see.
I would get used to floods and dealing with insurance companies.