As predicted, this El Nino, or neutral, just cannot get over the speed hump to make it to an El Nino.
Here is some updated figures. Bear in mind the forecasts are still predicting an El Nino is imminent, with Jones and Rhamstorf both claiming the hottest year ever is around the corner.
Notice the recent dive in the last fortnight. Lets check out the SST one more time.
1 month ago.
Today. Two things to notice, i will keep posting this until i wear my keyboard out.
I have inserted the black arrow in the Pacific for effect. Whilst that extremely colder than normal water is there, there will be no El Nino of significance. They will be weak, or neutral at best. It simply will not happen. This cold water feeds down the American coast from the Bering Sea, and into the basin, and undercurrents back Eastwards into the equatorial basin.
I detailed the subsurface in this post, which shows the difference between a cold PDO style of events and a neutral one.
However, the models are still fixated on this El Nino exploding out of nowhere, but i have bad news, you can see in todays sst picture that the warmth is receding by the day.
Hasnt stopped CFS:
Still forecasting a bit more warming until Xmas.
However, JMA has seen the light. Last week, it had a massive El Nino forecast here.
The forecast is those red dots you see exploding into space and boiling the oceans.
However, the drugs have now worn off and today came the new update.
Much flatter and pretty much peaked as i have been forecasting ad nauseam for many months now.
The response will be swift, and damaging.