The response.

Climate is all about response. If its wet for a long period of time, drought usually follows, or a dry spell.

When its hot, inevitably an ice age like cold snap follows. No snow, loads of snow.

This is how climate works, in a chaotic system, it’s always trying to restore the balance, searching for an equilibrium. Of course, we know this doesn’t happen.

But you can see it trying to do so. Any talk of a permanent El Nino or drought is close to the stupidest thing you will ever hear. It simply cannot happen in a place where we have cycles lasting 11, 20,  30,  60,  111 years etc etc.

If you look here, this is the multivariate El Nino index. Its a great indicator, and shows the 20-30 year decadal oscillation of the Pacific.

You will notice the 1950 – 1976 period is predominately blue, or the cold cycle. Then we had the response, the 25 year warm period from 1977 until the mid 2000s. But importantly, whilst these are decade long responses, there are also shorter time frame responses.

Notice in 1953 – 54 we had a weak El Nino form. This is the response from the climate, it cycles the warm and cold water deep in the subsurface, after 2 cold years it responded by bringing warm water to the surface. This is exactly the point of time we are at now, early in a cold PDO cycle, 2 very strong cold years and an attempt to restore the balance with some warm water at the sea surface.

It’s also important to understand what is going on here. In these cycles, notice how either cold or warm is the dominant feature, if you look at the warm cycle it was hardly ever down into the cold. This releases heat, as the oceans hold 1000 times more heat and energy than the atmosphere. And that why you see the global temperatures have increased since 1979. And conversely in the 1950s, the small El Nino spikes were a quick release of heat, before going cold for a prolonged period.

This is where we are now, at the beginning of the cold PDO. However, we are only half way through a warm AMO so we havent seen too much of a drop off in global temps.  They will meander slowly down until the end of the decade, before a much bigger drop off in the following 2 decades.

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