Does this sound familiar? Climatologist’s are telling us we need to have a big El Nino this year, otherwise the dreaded Super El Nino will come back next year and kill us all.
When the pacific is in its cold phase, the cold PDO, there cannot be any strong El Ninos. There can be variations of weak and moderate ones, but no Super ones.
There is just too much cold water in the North Equatorial Current to allow El Ninos.
I have posted this 1000 times on many forums and blogs. Just this very minute i still see El Ninos being forecast over the next 6 months.
Its simply not going to happen. And all of a sudden, look what happens when the models see that the oceans are cooling and any heat is just released quickly and vanishes.
Quick explanation: Neutral is between 0.5 and -0.5, above 0.5 is El Nino, below -0.5 is La Nina.
Take a look at the plunge it is now seeing. this is Nino 1 and 2 just off the South American coast. The blue lines are the latest model runs, the black line is the average. Personally i think it will drop further but the models can sense whats coming. You can see just last week from the old lines that it expected warming to happen.
Now for Nino 3.4, which is the middle of the Pacific.
Two things, first if Nino 3.4 stays as high as that until next July then i will eat my shorts, and two it also senses the drop off in neat content as well in the main area of the pacific.
Also, if it does manage to stay that high and i do eat my shorts, then enough heat will be released to see a massive La Nina develop for all of 2013 and 2014.
You see, i posted a few days ago about responses. And if you take a look at this image you will see what the climate does clearly.
Concentrate on the 1950s, the period from 1950 – 1976, when the pacific was in a cold PDO phase.
there are facts that we know, that not even alarmists can change, and that is that during the cold PDO, La Nina’s, shown in blue representing Cold water, last 21 months on average.
Conversely, the warming of an El Nino shown in red only average 9 months. In a warm phase of the Pacific, its reversed.
Now back to the graph, when you have two years of cold water like 1950-52, you need to see a response, and we got it in late 52. The small red spike on the chart. The following year stayed the same, so we had 2 years of weak El Nino’s or warm neutral years.
That was the release of heat from the oceans. Once that happened, it was time for a counter response and we got it with interest with a Super la Nina lasting 3 or 4 years, from 1954 – 58.
And notice how the weak the red spikes are until 1976? That is why all this nonsense about a Super El Nino is just that.
Of course, the other thing to consider is that El Nino’s increase global temperatures, and La Ninas cool global temps.
Thats why alarmists talk about El Nino’s often, it helps them to adjust the data and blame El Nino!