Here comes the shift!

I have been talking about it for a while, now its all starting to move.

It will probably be 2-3 weeks before we see its effects, but we have now had some movement in the top end with regards to convergence zones and Sea surface temps.

Heres the latest anomaly graph again:

Now you will notice all the blue south of Java, its now starting to weaken as the waters warm. Also if you remeber about a week ago i posted a graph of the upper 300 metre temperatures for the oceans, and mentioned this area where the black arrow is was mostly warm except on the surface. Now its warming quickly on the surface, and here is why.

The area of convergence, the meeting of the airmasses, has shifted from where the orange arrow was, to now being over Indonesia.

Because patterns like this winter have strong Se winds sweeping up through this area it was cooling the surface of the oceans.

But as i posted on Saturday, the highs have shifted slightly South, allowing this convergence zone to move into Indonesia.

With it, it brings NE and NW winds, and hot temperatures. It also allows the warmer sub surface water to rise to the surface.

Here is the last months map of the upper 300, notice that it was very warm despite being cool at the surface.

Now that its at the surface, or starting to appear, it will flow into the Indonesian basin through the Indo Throughflow, which is here.

So in some ways this validates the theory that some people have that the atmosphere runs the oceans, rather than the oceans running the atmosphere. Certainly in this case it appears that once the pattern shifted and the convergence zone started to move, the oceans have now responded on the surface.

And this is the shift i have been waiting for, now it will take a fortnight or so to respond and feel the effects.

This has typically been the way the atmosphere has been all winter:

That is today, courtesy of WZ.

Now look in 2 weeks how much moisture is beginning to be drawn in from this shift, which in turn will warm the ocean to our NW even more.

And you can see that the winds have relaxed a lot and turned NE in the last picture.

And that, my friends, is the beginning! It is now well and truly on.


2 thoughts on “Here comes the shift!

  1. My forecast is for another late Spring and summer deluge again for much of the country. Despite forecasts of El Nino the atmosphere is still neutral, which allows Easterly winds to pump moisture over the country. The shift atm is only subtle, but once the flow turns to E/NE from the pacific i dont think we can escape another year of very heavy rainfall.

    New climate outlook update will be issued by Sept 23.

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