I suppose if you keep forecasting one, eventually it will come, right?
Wrong! David is an alarmist, who think the ice sheet in Antarctica is doomed if we hit 450 ppm in CO2.
Unfortunately for him, Hansen, Gore and anyone else who thinks we are going to have the Pacific Ocean ablaze with very warm water is totally delusional, or uneducated.
Here is a little snippet of why. This is what they, and the climate models see under the surface.
You will notice quite a bit of warm water at 140 W to 100W near the South American coast. It is natural to assume that this will rise to the surface, and warm the Pacific.
And this is where it goes all pear shaped. In a cold PDO cycle, the atmosphere is running the show.
Strong SE/E trade winds are coming out of South America, and cooling the waters at the surface.
Any warming is short lived. For a strong El Nino, you need lots of warm water north of the equator which will move into the basin on the North Equatorial Current, and travel West towards South America on westerly winds, and Kelvin Waves.
This simply will not occur in the current set up, David does not understand this, because he is too busy trying to scare everyone about a heat wave that’s going to hit the Southern states of Australia, despite forecasts of 26 for Melbourne.
So there will be a little bit of green pop up on the Unisys map in the next few weeks, and then will be destroyed in a matter of days by the Se trades.