As promised, the patterns are now in full forward motion, the build up season over the Top End will be early, and the monsoon will follow Mid December.
Here are Cape values, which is a measure of the Potential Energy in the atmosphere, for 7 days time.
Notice again the black arrows, this is now where the convergence zone is, which is why the waters are rapidly warming as the winds swing to the NE, dragging the warm water in from beneath.
This would not be occurring in an El Nino, in fact its coming early as a response to the patterns of dryness for the last 6 months.
In another few weeks you will see what i mean when our rainfall graphics are scattered with pretty colours.
Heres the precipitation forecast, as you can see moisture is now building over the interior.
Right in line with my forecast, this pattern will increase over the next 6 weeks.