Much to the disgust of David Jones, the El Nino just got chewed up by the Cold PDO.
David, head of the National Climate Centre, has predicted that an El Nino is imminent, because if it doesn’t, next year will be a Super El Nino and we will break temperature records.
He also believes the Cold PDO may be a statistical variance, which is hilarious in itself, but then again, David like to ignore history and alarm everyone about CO2.
Here is the statistical variance.
Warm, cold, warm, cold, warm…and now cold. Fairly clear cut to anyone who has an IQ above 12.
Anyway, lets take a look at how David’s El Nino is tracking along.
Here is todays SST chart, as you can see the equator is cooling in the Pacific. the Cold PDO is destroying any heat that pops up.
Now compare this with 6 weeks ago, and check out the difference.
The cooling had just begun near Ecuador, that purple spot. Now the cool blue has spread west with the Easterly trade winds.
And unfortunately for anyone who is begging for an El Nino to drive temps up, it will not happen.
The only question remains how long climate models take before they realise whats going on and drop their forecasts through the floor for next years La Nina.
Here is the Kelvin Wave plot, which normally would show the heat in the pipeline in the subsurface.
I want you to pay special attention to the chart from the 16th August. You will notice the big blob of warm water, this usually translate into surface warming. But look at each week, the warm spots are chewed up and now all we have is cold water in the pipeline.
In about 8 weeks this is going to hit the surface and cool it even further, which is what a cold PDO does.
Maybe if i post it enough times people can start forecasting more appropriately to the cycle we are in.
Unfortunately for David, he backed the wrong horse.