Latest ocean heat content tells the story.

Firstly lets look at August, and remember this is the upper 300 metre heat, not the surface. It’s an average of the top layer of water.

Now remember the cold water flows down the North Equatorial Current and into the basin. Notice the arrow which indicates the equator, and its was warm all the way to Australia through the top 300 metres. So we had the cold PDO, the strongest blue feeding down form the North.

Now look at the latest figures just released for September.

Notice the area that i circled, the colder waters are now joining up, so the majority of this area now has colder water than warmer.

That means goodbye any chance of El Nino, the models are way off the pace with this.

Any MJO bursts from PNG will not initiate too much heat because there is none in the subsurface where it needs to be.

Yesterdays Kelvin Wave plot only indicates one thing, a La Nina is on the way. Most likely will be neutral until next Easter, then it will swing cold for a La Nina to form.

Just for good measure, have a look at this.

The heating is gone, it’s over, that was the best shot it had, and at solar max mind you.

Now watch the next 2 years and see the response, and also the models which will no doubt not see this till next Easter either.

Also the other area circled is the warmth North Of Indonesia, it will flow down to be near NW Wa in the next few weeks, so enjoy the dry spell now.

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