Permanent El Nino predictions, 15 years on.

In 1997, scientists insisted we would go into a permanent el nino state, warming the planet to kill us all.

Unless of course we parted with our cash and payed carbon taxes.

CO2 was the reason of course. Not long after we had 3 La nina years in a row in response to the Super el Nino of 1998.

So that was a bad start. Heres the link to the article, and an extract.

Scientists are warning that global warming could make the El Nino a permanent feature of the world’s weather system.

El Nino events normally occur roughly every 5 years, and last for between 12 and 18 months. However unpublished scientific research now suggests that the complex weather systems could occur every 3 years, making them a dominant weather pattern and in effect, almost permanent.

This year’s El Nino has been one of the strongest on record and has led to:

  • Droughts in Australia and Papua New Guinea. 
  • Delayed monsoon in South East Asia leaving forest fires to rage out of control, blanketing the region with choking smog.
  • Storms on the Pacific coast of South and Central America from Chile to Mexico. 
  • Drought in Southern Africa. 
  • Threat of floods in Peru and California

In the last decade there have been 5 El Nino’s, and some scientists believe that rising greenhouse gases and global warming.

That’s a theory endorsed by Dr Russ Schnell, a scientist doing atmospheric research at Mauna Loa Observatory, 11,000 feet up on Hawaii. “It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Ninos are going to become more frequent, and they’re going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we’ll go into a permanent El Nino.”

“So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we’ll have El Nino upon El Nino, and that will become the norm. And you’ll have an El Nino, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years,” he said.

El Nino events have been occurring for thousands of years. It is a natural phenomenon that has always had a profound effect on those who live within its influence.

High in the Peruvian Andes, archeologists have discovered the skeletons of what they believe are human sacrifices, linked to El Nino events, at Inca temples of the Sun and the Moon.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/25433.stm

So, in a decade or so was 2007.

2007 – La nina

2008 – La nina

2009- El Nino

2010 – La nina

2011 – La nina

2012 – cool/ La nina.

Not bad, only 16.67% of the time since 2006 have been El nino.

Anyone with an IQ above shoe size could tell you ENSO follows the PDO cycle.

That is, in a warm PDO El nino dominates, in a cold PDO, La nina dominates.

And the cold PDO came on in 2006, and since La ninas have dominated.

Apparently, you need to be a qualified climatologist to speak such horse shit.

 

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