BOM fail to read the Real World blog and are now confused.

Back in August, I posted this.


A lot of rapid cooling over the past week, which is line with my forecast for a cool neutral from a few months ago.

Look at the difference from the start of the month.

And the models? Surely they must also be dropping off the El nino bandwagon?

Of course not, because they also have no clue.

Other indicators, well the SOI is rising, now up to -5.7 for the 90 day average.

Trade winds are definitely Easterly, no westerly wind anomalies anywhere to be seen.

All indicators are pointing to a neutral year, with average to above average rainfall for much of the country this summer and autumn.


And today, the highly confused BOM issue this.

Pacific’s late retreat to neutral considered unusual.

Issued on Tuesday 23 October | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Indicators of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue to show neutral values. Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean generally remain near average, after being close to El Niño thresholds in late winter. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels through much of the southern winter and spring.

The retreat from El Niño thresholds over the past several weeks is considered highly unusual, as September–October is typically the time when developing El Niño (or La Niña) events consolidate and mature. While some chance of El Niño remains, climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to be warmer than average, but stay within the neutral range for the rest of 2012 and early 2013.

This year has seen a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, which partly explains the unusually dry conditions experienced over much of Australia in recent months. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate the IOD is likely to return to neutral values over the next month. A positive IOD is typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia, but declines in both value and influence with the onset of the Australian monsoon at the start of summer.

Earth to Bureau of Meteorology…..

Its called the Cold PDO, i have posting daily about it! This is not new, the PDO has cycled forever.

Climate models are clueless, and so is the BOM. They are learning the hard way, and are months behind thanks to the flawed climate models they use, instead of using their brains every now and then.



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