Climate change forces BOM into extreme alarmism.

BOM alarmism is now in full swing, apparently the tactic is to put pressure on the government who are quite clearly going to repeal the useless Carbon Tax.

New article this morning stating that the BOM now has evidence by way of the models that climate change will make the extremes worse.

Climate change will intensify El Nino: BoM

AUSTRALIANS can expect more intense droughts during El Nino years due to climate change.

The Bureau of Meteorology has used new climate models from the IPCC to work out the first consistent projection of how El Nino will be affected by a warming climate.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a warming of water that affects weather patterns across the Pacific Ocean.

So before we look at how ridiculous that statement is, lets see how the models fared after the 2007 AR4 issued by the IPCC.

ipcc models vbs hadcrut 3

Observed temps are outside the error bars and the lowest estimates of the models.

So we can take that forecast with a grain of salt.

As for the extremes, apparently the federation drought was not extreme??

Or this picture of the Murray River in 1914?

md1914

Floods getting worse?

Here is a list of the top 10 floods. Apart from 2011, all are pre 1974.

1. June 1852 – Gundagai, NSW 89 deaths, entire settlement of 250 people destroyed There’s little doubt that the 2010/2011 Queensland floods were Australia’s most devastating in terms of damage to infrastructure and cost, but the worst loss of life happened in June 1852 when massive flooding on the Murrumbidgee River swept away most of the town of Gundagai, leaving just three houses standing. Eighty-nine people were killed, more than third of the population. The town was later rebuilt on higher ground.
2. December 2010 to January 2011 – Brisbane and south-east QLD 35 confirmed deaths, $2.38 billion in damage With over 200,000 people affected state-wide, the economic damage from this flood was estimated at $2.38 billion. Beginning with rains in September and then culminating with Category 1 Cyclone Tasha crossing the Far North Queensland coast on 24 December 2011, this was probably the most notorious flood in Australian history. In Brisbane, the river peaked at 4.46m on 13 January, flooding more than 28,000 homes and leaving 100,000 without power. Cyclone Yasi, which hit 3 Feburary, caused further damage to already sodden towns.

 3. 27 December 1916 – Clermont and Peak Downs, QLD 65 deaths, 10 homes destroyed, 50 buildings damaged and 10,000 livestock killed A cyclone swept the coast along the Whitsunday Passage, bringing heavy rainfall to Clermont, Sapphire and Peak Downs. This usually flood-savvy town forgot to counter for the runoff from nearby catchments and creeks and the debris it carried with it at crushing speeds. The torrent smashed through houses and caused widespread damage. The lower part of Clermont was submerged, so the town was rebuilt on higher ground.

4. 29 November 1934 – Melbourne, VIC 36 deaths, 6000 homeless and over 400 buildings damaged In late November 140mm of rain fell in Melbourne over a 48-hour period. To the east of Melbourne, in South Gippsland, 350mm fell over the same two-day period. The downpour resulted in landslides, evacuations and many submerged roads. Eighteen people drowned, with a further 18 killed by collapsing buildings and other dangers. More than 400 buildings were damaged in Melbourne and 6000 people were left homeless.

5. 15 February 1893 – Ipswich, QLD 35 deaths, 300 people injured and two bridges destroyed Often referred to as the Black February Flood, the extreme weather conditions and heavy rain were brought about by tropical Cyclone Bundinyong. The Crohamhurst weather station recorded 914mm of rain in a 24-hour period and another gauge recorded almost 889mm of rainfall in Brisbane’s water catchments. Both the Victoria Bridge and the Indooroopilly railway bridge collapsed, with 35 people killed and 300 injured.

6. 9-17 February 1927 – Brisbane, Cairns and Townsville, QLD 47 deaths, 16 homes destroyed, an estimated £300,000 in damages A tropical cyclone hit north of Cairns, causing major rainfall through Queensland, reaching as far as Toowoomba. The torrential rain led to the deaths of 47 people, damaged roads, railways, bridges and buildings – and completely destroyed 16 houses. There was also widespread loss of livestock. The estimated costs reported at the time were in the region of £300,000.

7. April 1929 – Northern Tasmania 22 deaths, 1000 homes damaged, 25 bridges destroyed The area of Northern Tasmania is prone to heavy rainfall over short periods and up to 500mm of rain fell over three days. The floodwater carved a path across the region, destroying everything in its path, including vehicles, buildings and railroad tracks. It inflicted huge stock losses, the evacuation of 3500 people, while damaging 35 bridges and 1000 homes.

8. February 1955 – Hunter Valley, NSW 24 deaths, 59 homes destroyed, 5200 homes flooded and more than 40,000 people evacuated The majority of deaths were around Singleton and Maitland, but most other river systems in the state were also in flood. These floods in the Hunter Valley have become symbolic in the Australian psyche of the dramatic nature of flood damage and rescue. About 15,000 people were evacuated from around these two towns, with over 40,000 people being evacuated from a total of 40 towns. Five of the lives lost were due to electrocution during rescue operations.

9. 25 January – 1 April 1974 – Brisbane, QLD – also NSW, TAS 14 deaths, 300 injured, 56 homes destroyed, an estimated $68 million in damages After a particularly wet year in 1973, Brisbane was inundated with water when tropical cyclone Wanda hit the north of the city on 25 January 1974. By 29 January the Brisbane area had recorded 900mm of rain, with 314mm of rain falling in a 24-hour period. In the coming months the torrential rain swept down the east coast, causing floods in parts of NSW and Tasmania. The floods killed 14 people and injured 300 more, as well as destroying 56 homes and damaging 6000 others. In all, an estimated $68 million worth of damages occurred.

10. August 1986 – Hawkesbury and Georges River Flood NSW 6 dead, 10,000 homes damaged, an estimated $35M in damages. With the rainfall reaching 327.6mm in 24 hours, this day has been dubbed Sydney’s wettest day ever. The torrential rain created chaos, with flooded roads prompting many motorists to abandon their cars. Bus services were severely disrupted in the city and trains were halted due to flooded tunnels.

Maybe the BOM think they can erase history….instead they have erased any braincells from their docklands headquarters.

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